The fascinating and encouraging Sunderland AFC performance data and what it tells us about their prospects

After exceeding all expectations by finishing sixth in their first Championship campaign, Sunderland set the bar high and left many wondering how they would fare trying to kick on again this season.

The division also looked considerably stronger this time around, due to the calibre not just of the sides relegated from the Premier League but also of those promoted from League One.

Despite a chastening defeat to Middlesbrough last time out, the early indications from Tony Mowbray and his side have been promising.

The season began with two disappointing defeats, but Mowbray made clear that he felt the performances were still at a level that would bring results were they to be maintained. That quickly proved a fair assessment, with Sunderland currently tracking at a rate that would deliver them 79 points if continued across the course of the season. That would land them ten more than they managed last season, and would almost certainly deliver them a play-off place.

But just how likely are they to maintain that impressive pace? We’ve taken a close look at their underlying performance data, to establish whether they’ve improved from last season and most importantly, how they are faring compared to the rest of what looks like again being a ferociously competitive second tier.

ATTACKING PERFORMANCE

That Sunderland have scored the fourth-most goals in the division (20) is an encouraging statistic given that this was Tony Mowbray’s key concern heading into the campaign, with Amad returning to Manchester United and Ross Stewart injured before his deadline-day move to Southampton.

When you consider that they have not yet scored one goal from a recognised striker, it is a genuinely remarkable one.

What will please Sunderland is that their attacking data more generally suggests that this is no coincidence. Their expected-goals tally for the campaign so far is 18, meaning they are only slightly overperforming as it stands. That is the eighth-best in the Championship so far, but only 0.6 goals separates them from Middlesbrough, Leeds United and Plymouth Argyle immediately above on Wyscout’s model. In short, they are one of the most dangerous sides in the league and the rest of their attacking statistics underline this. 

They are 5th in the division for shots taken across the first 11 games, with only Plymouth, Leicester City, Southampton and Ipswich Town above them. They rank even better when it comes to touches inside the opposition box, where only Southampton and Blackburn Rovers can better their current tally of 257.

When it comes to key passes they currently rank seventh, and on deep completions they currently rank ninth.

On almost all of these statistics, Mowbray’s side are ahead of where they were last season. Their average expected-goals is up from 1.37 per game last time around to 1.65, while they are taking 14 shots on average compared to 11 last season. Touches inside the box are up to over 23 per game, from 17 last season. 

This entirely vindicates Mowbray’s view that the positional play and attacking structure of his team has improved even if they don’t have that stardust so often provided by Amad. The signs are encouraging when you consider that Nazariy Rusyn, Luis Hemir and Eliezer Mayenda should all improve as the season progresses. If Sunderland’s strikers can come to the fore, then they will truly be a force to be reckoned with.

Though it should also be said that this data also undoubtedly reflects the way they developed their style in the absence of a number nine for much of last season, becoming a team where a lot of the best scoring opportunities were for their wide players.

DEFENSIVE LEVELS 

Perhaps unsurprisingly given their expansive style, Sunderland’s defensive statistics are solid but not quite as impressive. They have also, it should be said before we continue, been somewhat skewed by that second half against Middlesbrough where Michael Carrick’s side racked up a stack of big chances against ten men.

Sunderland’s defensive statistics are still holding up, though. Their expected-goals against tally according to Wyscout’s model is 13.92, which places them as the eighth-best defence in the division (exactly the same as in the XG-for table).

They have faced 124 shots across their 11 games, which is the 11-best record in the Championship.

Compared to last season, their defensive numbers have improved modestly but clearly. 

Their average expected-goals against is down to 1.27 from 1.36, while the opposition are also regularly having fewer touches inside the box. That average is down to 15 from 17.58 last season.

While the decision to move Luke O’Nien into a regular central defensive role ahead of Danny Batth proved hugely controversial, the statistics suggest that this has not had a significant impact on defensive performance and O’Nien’s qualities in contributing to the team’s attacking style is obvious. It also reflects well on the fact that Mowbray has been able to give greater attacking licence to Dan Neil without leaving his side considerably more exposed.

Where Mowbray has voiced a concern is whether the inexperienced players behind O’Nien and Dan Ballard would be ready to step up in the case of injury or suspension, which is inevitable at some stage of a 46-game campaign. Ballard, for example, is already on four yellow cards.

CLUB PHILOSOPHY 

Results are of course football’s primary currency but we also know that Sunderland’s hierarchy will be paying very close attention to all of these performance markers.

They will also be paying close attention to how the club’s philosophy is developing and here they will likely be very satisfied by the progress Mowbray is making. The average age of their side is 22.5, the youngest in the entire division by 1.4 years ahead of Blackburn Rovers.

Only Leicester City and Southampton better their average possession of 58.3%, and only three sides press the opposition more aggressively than Sunderland. The identity of the side, on and off the pitch, is becoming increasingly distinct in the club's second Championship season.

SO… ARE SUNDERLAND BETTER THIS TIME AROUND?

Undeniably. In an average Championship game last season, the two teams were generally very evenly matched. Sunderland’s average XG was 1.37 against 1.36 for the opposition, with both teams averaging 11 shots and 17 touches in the box.

In an average game this season, it is an average XG of 1.65 for Sunderland against 1.27, with 14 Sunderland shots against 11. So far they have been the stronger side far most consistently than was the case last season.

Only three teams in the division have a better record so far when it comes to both expected goals and expected goals against: Leicester City, Leeds United and Middlesbrough. Leeds United in particular look like a side who will still play there way firmly into the promotion reckoning, with Daniel Farke beginning to make real strides after a turbulent summer.

Leicester City are currently the runaway leaders of the division and their underlying data suggests that is sustainable, while Ipswich Town’s points haul is also backed up by some very strong performance numbers.

Sunderland have established themselves firmly in the pack below Leicester City as one of the best of the rest, and at this early stage can absolutely be seen as viable play-off contenders.

With Mowbray hopeful that his options are going to improve after the international break as injured players begin to return and those late summer signings begin to settle, it’s a team and a club in a pretty good place from which to build.

All stats courtesy of wyscout.com